AHDB: Brazilian production growth slows, but export boom continues

Published 2024년 11월 22일

Tridge summary

The USDA has lowered its 2024 growth forecast for the Brazilian pork industry to 1% from 3% due to adverse weather conditions and higher feed costs. Despite a projected 1% decline in domestic consumption in 2024 due to high prices, demand is expected to rise towards the end of the year. Exports have increased by 5% in the first nine months of 2024, reaching a record high of 1.05m tonnes, with China, the Philippines, Chile, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore as the main markets. Despite a decrease in imports from China, Brazil may still increase its market share if the antidumping investigation on European products ends favorably. The authorization to export pork and offal to Malaysia is expected to further boost exports.

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Original content

The USDA has revised down its 2024 forecast to year-on-year growth of 1%, down from 3% earlier this year. A further increase of 1% is forecast for 2025 to 4.55m tonnes (CWE). Lower feed costs were said to be incentivising production gains earlier this year, however in recent months this has been limited due to unfavourable weather in spring. Rabobank report that heavy rains in April and May reduced the supply of piglets. Pork is the third preferred protein in Brazil after chicken and beef. USDA forecast domestic consumption to decline by 1% in 2024 due to firm pricing, although there is an expectation of demand picking up towards the end of the year for seasonal activities such as BBQ season, Christmas and New Years celebrations. Looking to 2025, consumption in Brazil is expected to recover, increasing by 2% to 3.07m tonnes (CWE) following stronger economic signals in recent months. Total pig meat exports (including offal) from Brazil have grown 5% (53,000 tonnes) for the year to ...

Source: EuroMeat