Arabica futures hit record high amid global supply uncertainty

Published 2024년 11월 25일

Tridge summary

Arabica coffee futures have reached a new record high of 311.25 cents/lb due to concerns about global supply, particularly in Brazil. The 2025/2026 harvest in Brazil is projected to see lower production due to unfavorable weather conditions, and the USDA has revised its estimate for the 2024/2025 harvest, predicting a reduction in production and stocks. Other major coffee producers are also facing challenges. High trade could restrict domestic supply and support prices, and global coffee stocks are expected to decline due to strong exports and growing international demand.

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Original content

Arabica coffee futures hit a new record high on Monday morning (25), reaching 311.25 cents/lb, reflecting growing uncertainty about global supply. According to the Hedgepoint Global Markets report, the upward trend in coffee futures prices continues, driven by concerns about production in Brazil, in addition to other weather and trade factors. The focus of the analysis is mainly on the 2025/2026 harvest in Brazil, which may record lower production due to unfavorable weather conditions, such as drought and high temperatures. Laleska Moda, coffee analyst at Hedgepoint, estimates that conilon production in Brazil should grow 12.2%, totaling 22.6 million bags, while the arabica harvest may show a reduction of 1.4%, totaling 42.6 million bags. "Initially, we projected a total coffee supply in Brazil of 65.2 million bags, which represents an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous harvest, but future weather conditions may change our estimates," notes the analyst. The United States ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio