Global arable market report, June 19, 2023

Published 2023년 6월 19일

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the current state of the global agricultural market, focusing on the impact of weather conditions and policy developments. It highlights concerns over hot and dry weather in the US Midwest, which could lead to a decrease in the forecast global grain surplus for 2023/24. The article also discusses apprehensions regarding spring barley in Europe and the extension of the Black Sea Initiative, which is crucial for Ukrainian exports. Additionally, the article covers the increase in US soybean futures, influenced by US Midwest dryness and the potential impact of El Niño on palm oil production. Furthermore, it addresses the rise in Chicago soybean and Paris rapeseed futures, as well as the impact of trade data and domestic prices in the UK and Canada.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Nerves over crops and the Black Sea situation are supporting prices currently. These will continue to drive markets in the coming weeks. Hot, dry weather in the US is casting doubt on the forecast global grain surplus in 2023/24. The longer-term price direction is now uncertain as it largely depends on the extent of any damage to crops. Winter barley harvesting has now reached France but worries persist about spring barley in Europe. Longer-term, the market direction for barley will depend on maize (and wheat). Nerves over the potential impact of dry weather and if the Black Sea Initiative (Ukrainian export corridor) will be extended pushed up prices last week. Russia continues to state that it is unhappy with how the current deal is being implemented and is unlikely to be extended (Refinitiv). Re-positioning by speculative traders ahead of a long weekend in the US also contributed to the rise in prices. The US futures markets are closed today for Juneteenth. The largest gains ...

Source: Ahdb