Argentina's sunflower harvest forecast raised to record 4.7 million tons will put pressure on sunflower oil prices

Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina’s 2024/25 sunflower crop by 200,000 tons to a record 4.7 million tons, which is 22% higher than the previous season’s figure (3.85 million tons) and the USDA forecast (4.2 million tons). The forecast is being raised for the second week in a row, as sunflower plantings turned out to be larger than expected and yields were higher. Recall that Argentina is the third largest global exporter of sunflower oil after Ukraine and the Russian Federation. In April, the USDA estimated Argentina’s 2024/25 sunflower crop at 4.2 million tons, and sunflower oil exports at 1.15 million tons. The adjustment of forecasts in the May report will dramatically change the global balance and lead to a drop in sunflower oil prices in May-June. This week, prices for sunflower oil in Argentina were $1,115-1,125/t FOB, which is slightly lower than prices in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, but an increase in offers could ...