USA: Beef supply shortfall driving record wholesale and retail prices

Published 2024년 7월 23일

Tridge summary

In 2024, the supply of lean beef is projected to drop significantly due to reduced cow inventories and normalized culling rates, resulting in record high wholesale and retail prices. The decline in cow and bull slaughter rates, along with a decrease in fed beef cuts for ground beef, has driven fresh, domestic lean grinding beef prices up by 28% to $3.75 a pound. Retail ground beef prices have also reached record highs, with June's average at $5.71 a pound. Despite inelastic demand, retailers are cautious about rapid price increases. Foodservice operators are challenged by higher beef prices, labor costs, and tighter consumer budgets, though increased imports of cheaper lean beef may provide some relief for quick-service restaurants.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The supply of lean beef (cow meat) was expected to decline by double digits in 2024 due to the decline in cow inventories and a return to a more normal culling rate. But even those expecting a decline have been taken aback by the shortfall, and the resulting record wholesale and retail prices. For all Q2, cow and bull slaughter averaged 16% below last year and almost 30% lower than two years ago. Making matters worse the supply of fed beef cuts that can go into ground beef is also down, a function of the steady decline in the calf crop in recent years. Higher prices are needed to ration out a smaller supply. As of this writing, the benchmark price for fresh, domestic lean grinding beef is trading at $3.75 a pound, 28% higher than a year ago. This is a new record high for this product. When adjusted for inflation, current prices are near the previous cyclical peak in 2014-15. Retail ground beef prices have hit record high levels as well. According to the Bureau of Labor ...

Source: Provisioner