Brazil: Physical soybean market operates without major changes, focused on planting and slow trading

Published 2025년 10월 31일

Tridge summary

The physical soybean market ended the week with little aggressive movements. At ports, the market showed a decrease in sales—something consistent with the current context of high lineups, indicating well-stored buyers, possibly until December. Thus, even with the recent highs on the CBOT, domestic prices did not show firmness, reflecting the fall in premiums at

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ports. On the other hand, November is approaching—a crucial month for the unfolding of the trade war between the United States and China. If there is no agreement, the scenario tends to worsen for the US export sector. Projections indicate that US exports could fall between 10 and 12 mln tons, raising stocks to more than 15 mln, even if there is a significant increase in domestic crushing or a negative revision of US yield. Today, the CBOT is trading around USD 10.70 for March and USD 10.85 for May, levels again close to previous resistance levels, which represents an opportunity for hedging, especially for those who have not yet locked in prices. It is worth remembering that soybean premiums are still positive but are beginning to lose strength for the new crop, reflecting the pressure from the CBOT. In the medium term, with the effective entry of the harvest, this correlation tends to weaken: premiums should price much more the large, expected supply in Brazil and increasing ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult