Canada: Industry believes green pea supplies are over-reported

Canada has far fewer green peas than the government is reporting, says an analyst. “Purely from a price perspective, markets believe the Canadian harvest was smaller than estimated by Statistics Canada,” Stat Publishing noted in a recent article. Using crop insurance data, a “strong argument” can be made that growers planted 358,000 acres of green peas last year, well below Statistics Canada’s 463,000-acre estimate. Stat believes the area has been over-reported since 2021. “The cumulative difference in green pea production since 2021 is likely around 196,000 tonnes, resulting in a major reduction in residual stocks from prior estimates,” it stated. “This helps explain both the price performance for the crop and perceived on-farm stocks.” Green pea bids were averaging about $15.40 per bushel as of May 2, while yellows were fetching $9.85, according to Stat. The firm believes green pea carryout from the previous year was a paltry 14,000 tonnes. That will likely climb to ...