Canada’s crush boom to benefit Aussie canola

Published 2024년 5월 15일

Tridge summary

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts a rosy future for Australia's canola sector, with reduced competition from Canada and increasing demand from the EU. Canada's crush capacity is expected to expand, leading to a decrease in exports and less competition for Australia in international markets. Australia's canola production is heavily dependent on exports, with Europe accounting for the majority. The EU is importing increasing amounts of canola to fuel its biofuel sector, particularly canola oil, due to policies reducing the use of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers and the phase-out of palm oil as a biofuel feedstock.

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Original content

The future looks bright for Australia’s canola sector, according to a leading agricultural bank. Commonwealth Bank of Australia is forecasting reduced competition from its main competitor and continued strong demand from its top export market. Canada’s exports are forecast to decline due to rising domestic crush. Canada has 14 crush facilities and 12.1 million tonnes of crush capacity. An additional 5.7 million tonnes of capacity are expected to be built by 2028, with a “large chunk” of that completed by 2026. “In order for Canadian crush facilities to be able to obtain enough canola, there will need to be a substantial decline in canola exports,” stated the bank. Canada’s canola plantings peaked at 22.9 million acres in 2017-18. Commonwealth Bank assumes that will be the maximum acreage. Yields are forecast to rise by 2.5 percent per year, resulting in about 22.5 million tonnes of production by 2030. Canada is expected to crush more than 16 million tonnes of that domestically, ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult