China dairy imports H1 2024; what’s in store for the rest of the year?

Published 2024년 8월 20일

Tridge summary

In the first half of 2024, China experienced a significant decrease in dairy product imports, with a 14.1% drop compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest level since 2018. This decline is attributed to an increase in self-sufficiency and economic slowdown, with milk production forecasted to grow by 3.2% in 2024. The reduction in imports, particularly powder products, has implications for the global dairy market. Despite these challenges, there is growth in the demand for healthier dairy products and higher income urban populations are increasingly consuming butter and cheese. New Zealand remains the leading supplier of dairy products to China, followed by the US, Germany, Australia, and France, while the UK holds less than 1% of the market share. The UK could potentially find market opportunities in supplying speciality cheeses to China's wealthier urban population.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the first half of 2024, imports of total dairy products in China were at their lowest since 2018. This has been primarily driven by increased self-sufficiency and a sluggish economy. China’s total import volume of dairy products stood at 1.19M tonnes, a decline of 14.1% year-on-year. This decline is the continuation of a trend noticed since 2022. Rabobank forecasts that China’s milk production will increase by 3.2% in 2024, to 43.3M tonnes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, milk production volumes in Q1 grew by 5.1% year-on-year. Herd expansions and yield growth on larger farms have been the key drivers attributing to the increase. With milk supplies increasing, the government is subsidizing WMP production. The longer shelf life of WMP makes it a good destination for excess raw milk to be absorbed. USDA forecasts WMP production in China to increase by 3.3% to 1.24M tonnes in 2024. Ample milk supply and increased production have weighed on powder markets. WMP ...

Source: Ahdb