China increases imports of Brazilian coffee; understand the reasons for growth

Recent export data reveals China as a key importer of Brazilian coffee, maintaining 6th position in January. • Despite representing 4% of Brazil's coffee exports, the increase in imports by China, which began in the second half of 2023 with the diversion of availability from Ethiopia, challenges traditional destinations. This change is driven by variations in differentials and places China as a potential important coffee destination in the coming years. • Factors influencing the coffee market in China include the shift in production to net imports since the 10/11 cycle and low per capita consumption (0.21kg annually), compared to the global average (1.3kg). Chinese supply and demand dynamics are strengthened with the predominantly Arabica coffee production, an almost equal internal division between roasted & ground coffee and soluble coffee, and a potential growth in the share of global demand if +12% growth in consumption per capital is maintained. Still, cultural barriers, such ...