Consultancy points to new logic in soybean prices

The Brazilian soybean market in 2025 was marked by its own dynamics, in which internal factors had a greater weight in the formation of prices than the behavior of international quotations. According to an analysis by TF Agroeconômica, the Chicago Stock Exchange acted more as a reference than as an inducer of trends, while basis, premiums, and exchange rates defined the effective value received by the producer in the country. Throughout the year, even with Chicago operating in a sideways and volatile manner, prices in reais presented relevant fluctuations, mainly reflecting the movement of the dollar and the domestic conditions of supply and demand. In the first half of the year, the basis remained weakened due to the full harvest, logistical pressure at the peak of the harvest, and the high availability of soybeans. This scenario began to change in the second half of the year, when the advancement of exports, the reduction of the remaining supply, and a more active domestic ...