Corn 2025/26 — Where Will Ukrainian Tonnes Go

Turkey, the biggest uncertainties Turkey purchased a quarter of all Ukrainian corn exports, but in 2025/26 Turkish demand may drop significantly. USDA estimates Turkey’s 2025/26 corn imports at 3.3 M mt, sharply by 2.5 M mt lower vs. 2024/25. Turkey corn production is higher in 2025. Competition from russia is intensifying – russian larger corn harvest makes russian CIF Marmara offers more aggressive. European Union Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium – will be core buyers. EU corn output estimated as lower y/y (58 M mt vs. 60 M mt in 2024), feed deficit persists, Italy and Spain will cover the deficit by possibly growing imports. The market is competitive after EU opened wider to North/South America corn imports; the EU GMO policy shifts keep US and later South America in the EU. Danube and Ukraine deep-sea logistics may be turned into a decisive factor in the competition. MENA Egypt bought 1.6 M mt in 2024/25 despite FX stress. If Egypt Gov’t stabilizes import financing, Ukraine ...