Corn prices did not respond to lower estimates of world stocks and US harvest in new USDA report

Published 2024년 11월 10일

Tridge summary

The USDA's November report unexpectedly increased forecasts for global corn production and consumption for FY 2024/25, while lowering world stock estimates. Global consumption is set to surpass production by 10 million tons, reversing the previous year's trend. Despite lower U.S. yield expectations, the USDA's figures were higher than anticipated, causing December corn futures to rise slightly. However, growth was limited by reduced Chinese import forecasts due to higher domestic production. Changes in the corn market include decreased exports from Black Sea countries, supporting Ukrainian prices amid rising demand from Egypt and Turkey, though offset by reduced Chinese imports and increased U.S. supplies. The report is seen as neutral, with market focus on China's production and import forecasts.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the November supply and demand balance sheet, USDA experts unexpectedly raised their forecasts for world corn production and consumption, and lowered their estimate of world stocks in FY 2024/25. In FY 2024/25, global corn consumption is expected to exceed production by 10 million tons, while in FY 2023/24, production exceeded consumption by 10 million tons. Analysts had expected lower yield and production estimates for U.S. corn, but the report's data exceeded those expectations, as USDA experts cut their yield forecast from 183.8 to 183.1 bushels/acre (11.48 t/ha) and production from 386, 18 to 384.64 million tons (389.7 million tons last year). December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 0.8% to $169.7/t on the report (+3.7% from the October report), but their growth was limited by a sharp decline in the import forecast to China, caused by the increase of own production. Compared to the October estimates, the new corn balance for the 2024/25 FY has undergone the ...

Source: Graintrade