Philippines: The Department of Finance expects a weak to moderate El Niño impact

게시됨 2023년 5월 20일

Tridge 요약

The Department of Finance (DOF) in the Philippines predicts that the upcoming weak to moderate El Niño event, expected to last until the first quarter of 2024, may not significantly impact the country's growth potential for the year. Despite the potential for below-normal rainfall in October, particularly in certain regions, the impact on domestic food production, including rice and corn, is expected to be minimal, with only slight declines in production. The finance chief also anticipates a negligible effect on pork and chicken production, and a beneficial effect on capture fisheries. However, the global economic outlook remains grim due to various factors, which could impact the country's growth targets. In the first quarter of this year, the Philippines experienced its slowest gross domestic product (GDP) growth since the second quarter of 2021.

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원본 콘텐츠

The Department of Finance (DOF) said El Niño is expected to have a weak to moderate effect on domestic food output and is unlikely to drag down the country’s growth potential this year. During the weekly Chat with SBED briefing, Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said that while El Niño is expected to persist up to the first three months of 2024, its impact on local production, especially for rice and corn, would not be significant. “The transition to El Niño is expected in the next months, with over 90 percent chance of persisting up to the 1Q 2024. However, most models show that the El Niño will be weak to moderate,” Diokno said. According to the DOF, the latest forecast indicated that most parts of the country will likely receive below-normal rainfall in October, with enhanced Southwest Monsoon highly likely, especially from July to August. Meanwhile, some areas in Visayas and Mindanao could experience early impacts of dry conditions or dry spell. In the agriculture sector, ...

출처: Mb