USA: El Niño winter comes for wheat

This time of year, markets are increasingly looking towards 2024 production outlooks for price direction. USDA will not publish its forecasts for 2024 supply and usage estimates until May 2024, so we are in a bit of a holding period until that data hits the market. Plus, at press time in early January, USDA had not yet published its 2024 U.S. winter wheat acreage forecasts. But as an El Niño winter settles in across the Northern Hemisphere, we don’t have to look far for clues as to how 2024 global wheat production will shake out. While some countries, like Australia and the block of Southeast Asia, may face production troubles, there is fresh opportunity for most major wheat producers in the Northern Hemisphere. For Europe, which is the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, El Niño winters typically result in colder and drier winters in the north, and wet and warmer winters in the South. France’s planted wheat area has already taken a hit on the changing weather pattern. Last ...