Energy cools as metals heat up

A divergent path We entered 2025 with a relatively bearish view of the commodities complex, while expecting gold to be the standout. And that was a pretty good call, especially when you look at oil and European natural gas. The oil market has been largely unfazed by geopolitical events and sanction uncertainty, which has seen it trade lower. A number of agri commodities have also come under pressure, including cocoa, sugar, wheat and corn, on the back of more comfortable supply conditions. That said, wheat and corn have clawed their way back from the lows seen this year, with trade tensions easing between the US and China. Base metal markets have performed well. While tariffs had been a downward concern, this uncertainty was more than offset by distortions seen in trade flows, with the market concerned about how trade policy will evolve. This has been particularly apparent in the copper market. The broad weakness in the US dollar would have provided further support to the metals ...