Exports and the dollar could ease pressure on cotton

The 2025/26 cotton crop in Brazil begins with expectations of growth in area and stable yield, even in the face of market and weather uncertainties. According to Céleres, the cultivation should benefit from weather conditions close to neutrality, which can sustain productivities within the historical average. With a possible low-intensity La Niña forming, the climate risks for cotton become less pronounced, favoring agricultural planning in the Cerrado, the main production hub of the country. The planting window, especially for the second crop, tends to remain within the ideal schedule. In addition to the climate, the international cotton market also exerts relevant influence. Global demand remains moderate, and international prices do not signal a significant recovery in the short term. Nonetheless, Brazil is betting on its productive efficiency to maintain competitiveness. The appreciation of the dollar against the real could favor exports, but margins remain pressured by high ...