Global: Eyes on oilseeds, Ukraine as Trump inauguration nears

Published 2024년 12월 4일

Tridge summary

As the upcoming second term of US President Donald Trump and the ongoing war in Ukraine are impacting global grain markets, analysts are trying to predict the future. RaboResearch's Stefan Vogel discusses potential scenarios, including possible US-China and Canada-China tensions affecting soybean and canola exports, and the risk of Ukraine's loss of access to key ports due to Russian occupation. He also touches on the potential effects of reduced US support for Ukraine on its grain export efficiency and the need for European countries to compensate. The article also mentions the history of grain shipping from Ukraine, the threat to its Black Sea ports, and the benefits of the AgriSupp online platform for market intelligence.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

As Donald Trump’s second term as US President nears, and the war in Ukraine drags on, analysts focused on global grain markets are wrapping their head around how 2025 might look. Speaking with Grain Central last week, RaboResearch general manager Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel said the oilseeds complex presents a mixed bag depending on where US-China and Canada-China relations go on soybeans and canola respectively. For grain, the possibility that Ukraine may lose ready access to key ports including Odessa under a Russian occupation is the one to watch. As Trump talks trade with US counterparties ahead of his inauguration in January, Mr Vogel said any impact on Australian markets will be secondary. “Clearly for grains and oilseeds, it doesn’t mean anything directly for us given that we’re not shipping a lot of grains or oilseeds into that market, but we’re serving some of those that the US is also exporting to like China, like South-east Asia. “Right now, it seems like the ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult