Fitch Ratings raises the CPO price forecast in Malaysia and Indonesia for 2025

Published 2024년 12월 30일

Tridge summary

Fitch Ratings has updated its forecast for the price of Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) spot benchmark, raising it to US$800 per tonne for 2025, then dropping it to US$700 per tonne thereafter. This revision is attributed to slower yield growth in Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, and increased biodiesel consumption in the country. Despite the higher price projections, Fitch anticipates that CPO prices will decline from 2024 due to increased supply and competition from soybean oil. The price surge in 2024 was due to reduced production in Indonesia and Malaysia, and a rebound in CPO output is expected in 2025 with the end of La Nina conditions. However, the availability of soybean oil is expected to put downward pressure on CPO prices, and the implementation of Indonesia's new biodiesel mandate is projected to slightly increase global palm oil consumption in 2025.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 30): Fitch Ratings has revised its 2025 price forecast for Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) spot benchmark to US$800 (RM3,576) per tonne, while projecting a decline to US$700 per tonne thereafter, according to its note dated Dec 27. "Our revised assumptions reflect a slower rebound in yields in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, and increasing biodiesel consumption in the country. Despite the hike, our assumption implies that prices will weaken from 2024, due to higher supply and competition with soybean oil." Fitch had earlier assumed an average price of US$750 per tonne in 2025 and US$650 per tonne thereafter. According to the note, despite the higher price forecasts, Fitch expects CPO prices to weaken from 2024 due to increased supply and growing competition from soybean oil. CPO prices surged past US$1,200 per tonne in early December 2024, driven by weaker output from Indonesia and Malaysia, where heavy rains hampered harvesting. Prices have ...

Source: Theedgemarkets