Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its 2022 world cereal production forecast upwards by 9 million tonnes to 2 774 million tonnes, showing a 1.3% decrease from the previous year. This revision is primarily due to increased rice production estimates, particularly in India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, which compensates for the expected decline in coarse grains utilization. The global rice production forecast has been raised by 4.9 million tonnes to 517 million tonnes, despite a production drop in Tanzania and Pakistan due to poor rainfall. In contrast, the forecast for global cereal utilization in 2022/23 is projected to decrease by 0.6%, with coarse grains utilization expected to fall by 1.5%. The FAO also anticipates a slight increase in global rice utilization due to increased ethanol production in India. Furthermore, global wheat utilization has been revised upwards by 1.8 million tonnes, largely due to increased feed use in the European Union. However, global cereal stocks are expected to decline by 1.2% from their opening levels, with a decrease in maize and rice stocks being offset by an increase in wheat stocks. Additionally, the FAO forecasts a 1.8% decrease in cereals world trade in 2022/23, with regional differences in trade expectations for coarse grains, rice, and wheat. The early production outlook for 2023 shows mixed conditions for wheat and coarse grain crops across various countries, with adjustments in planting and weather conditions influencing production prospects.