Global producer margins show improvement following an uplift to commodity prices – Q3 Rabobank update

Published 2024년 10월 10일

Tridge summary

Unpredictable weather, fewer cattle, and high feed costs led to a decrease in milk supply in the first half of 2024, but improving feed prices and easing inflation are expected to improve margins. Rabobank predicts a slight growth of 0.14% in milk production in major exporting regions for the rest of 2024 and a larger 0.65% growth in 2025. World wholesale milk prices have increased due to low supply, with the exception of China due to high production and low demand. The US, Europe, the UK, and New Zealand have experienced mixed production results, with New Zealand's production dependent on weather conditions. Poland sees a increase in production while Ireland predicts a 5% decline.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Unpredictable weather across many regions, fewer cattle and high feed costs contributed towards a year-on-year reduction in milk supply throughout the first half of 2024. However, with now more affordable feed prices and easing inflation for agricultural inputs, margins are improving. For the major exporting regions, Rabobank predict an uplift for Q3 and Q4, resulting in a small growth of 0.14% YoY for 2024, followed by a larger 0.65% growth in 2025. World wholesale prices have been improving as the market reacts to low supply. According to Rabobank, prices are now starting to flow into farmgate milk prices. Compared to June 2023, EU prices have increased by 4%, and by 12% for Ireland. China is an exception, where high milk production and lacklustre demand has driven prices down. Production changes and the current EU/China trade dispute is likely to cause further market implications. The US has experienced declining milk production for over a year. Higher milk prices are expected ...

Source: Ahdb