Holiday spending overdraws, post-holiday demand weakens, salmon prices return to two-year lows.

Norwegian salmon prices drop to two-year lows, with large sizes most affected

According to industry sources, the spot price of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon fell by NOK 3 to 4 per kilogram this week, with larger sizes experiencing more significant declines, bringing the market average price to its lowest point in nearly two years for the same period.

Data from UCN shows that the average price for FCA Oslo head-on gutted (HOG) salmon in the 3-6 kg size range fell by about NOK 2.4 per kilogram, with the 4-5 kg size dropping from NOK 70 to NOK 68 per kilogram, and the 6-7 kg size falling from NOK 75 to NOK 68 per kilogram.

Norwegian exporters pointed out that the main issue currently is the combination of reduced demand after the holidays and rising supply, "The market has not yet entered the Christmas preparation phase, but the fish have already been shipped out, causing a mismatch in supply and demand."

Chinese market: Prices generally decline after the holiday

In China, the decline in consumption after the holiday has directly driven down prices. The wholesale price of 6-7 kg Norwegian salmon in Guangzhou fell by 14 yuan per kilogram this week, marking a double-digit decline for two consecutive weeks.

Industry insiders said that the National Day Golden Week is usually the peak consumption period of the year, and wholesalers mostly complete their monthly sales targets in the first week of the holiday, with the market entering an "adjustment period" after the holiday. Some distributors revealed that currently, selling Norwegian salmon results in an average loss of about 10 yuan per kilogram.

As of this week, except for Faroe Islands salmon, the mainstream imported salmon prices in China's first-tier cities have generally dropped below 100 yuan per kilogram. Even the prices of Faroe salmon have shown noticeable softening.

The American market also weakens in sync, with increased Chilean supply as the main reason

In the U.S. market, both Norwegian and Chilean salmon are under pressure. With continuous ample supply from Chile and the slowdown in post-holiday purchases, the average price of Trim-D fillets in the 41st week fell by $0.25-$0.32 per pound, especially for the 4-5 pound size, which is oversupplied.

Industry insiders said that Chilean salmon prices usually drop at the beginning of the fourth quarter, then rebound as preparations for Thanksgiving and Christmas begin, so there is still room for further price adjustments in the short term.

The European market also shows signs of fatigue, with Scottish prices under pressure despite being high

Scottish salmon prices are also on a downward trend, but they are still higher than the same period in 2024. Industry buyers reported that the cold storage delivery price for 5-6 kg salmon is £6.30 per kilogram, and for sizes above 6 kg, it is about £7.00 per kilogram. Industry insiders believe that if Christmas purchases do not start early, prices may continue to be pressured.

Post-holiday slump may be short-lived, fourth-quarter holidays will be a key variable

Overall, the global salmon price drop in the 42nd week has seasonal characteristics. Overconsumption during Chinese holidays and the lack of preparation for Christmas and New Year in Europe and the U.S. have temporarily brought the market into a low-temperature period.

However, many traders expect that Christmas and New Year orders will gradually start in November. If sea conditions remain stable and the harvest pace is manageable, prices may rebound in the middle to late part of the fourth quarter.