How is China’s growing milk supply affecting global dairy exports?

Dairy supply has been a key policy cornerstone for the Chinese government since 2018. The country set out to increase its milk production by 10 million metric tons from 2018 to 2025, a target achieved in 2023. According to Rabobank estimates, this increased China’s milk supply self-sufficiency from 70% to 85% - further reducing the nation’s dependence on imports. So which dairy commodities and product categories have been hit the most? WMP imports have been the most notable category affected by China’s strategic focus on dairy production, given the country’s position as the world’s largest powder importer. While imports more than doubled from 2010 to 2022, from 325,000 metric tons to nearly 845,000 metric tons, they slipped to just 430,000 metric tons in 2023. According to Rabobank’s forecast for 2024, these imports are set to increase to 460,000 metric tons and stabilize to around 500,000 metric tons by 2025. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) expects weak market demand ...