How is the wheat market developing at the end of the year?

게시됨 2024년 12월 18일

Tridge 요약

The article highlights the dynamic of global wheat markets in late 2024, influenced by geopolitical events, particularly in Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East. Despite these factors, market activity remains limited due to adequate supply. The USDA forecasts a decrease in Russian exports to 47 million tons, resulting from an expected export quota, aligning with the five-year average. Arguments also point to an increased Argentine wheat crop estimate of 500,000 tonnes to 19.3 million, marking the third-largest crop in the past 15 years. The USDA predicts a decrease in global wheat supplies, consumption, and trade for the 2024-25 season, attributed to lower production and higher opening stocks, leading to a reduction in global wheat trade by 1 million tonnes to 213.7 million.

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원본 콘텐츠

In brief: • Market activity remains very limited • USDA forecasts Russian exports to decline to 47 million Geopolitics remains the driving force for global wheat markets in late 2024, with events in Ukraine, Russia and the Middle East dictating traders’ sentiment. On the other hand, with end-users well-supplied, activity is currently very limited. “However, UK feed wheat futures and Paris bread wheat futures gained 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. Chicago corn futures for May 2025 rose 0.9% on the week,” said the latest 2024 arable crop market report, published on December 16 by the UK’s Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). The agency’s analysts see a positive note, citing a SovEcon forecast that “Russian wheat exports for December could range from 3.3 million to 3.5 million tonnes, down from 4.1 million in November, although in line with the five-year average.” The British also said that Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange had raised its estimate for the 2024 ...

출처: Agri