Global grain and soybean market outlook highlights on September 2024

Published 2024년 9월 20일

Tridge summary

The article provides an update on the global grain, soy, rice, and lentil markets, forecasting a minor increase in total grains production to a record 2,315 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season, despite slightly lower opening stocks. This is due to larger harvests of sorghum, wheat, oats, and barley, but a decrease in global grain supplies is expected due to reduced opening stocks. Global consumption is projected to rise modestly to 2,325 million tonnes, with soybean trade expectations also increased by 2 million tonnes to 175 million. Record high global rice production is anticipated for 2023/24, with trade predicted to rise to 54 million tonnes in 2025. Additionally, global lentil production is expected to increase by 19% year-on-year in 2024/25, with consumption and total stocks also expected to rise. The article also discusses the market outlook, noting a recent recovery in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index and providing insights into specific sub-indices like wheat, corn, and rice.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

With offsetting changes in major commodities, total world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) is forecast at 2,315 million tonnes. Revisions this month include another downward revision for the EU but upward revisions for the US, Australia and Argentina. Following revisions to crushing requirements, which include higher figures for grain-based biofuels, the Council’s world consumption estimate is revised up 4 million tonnes m/m (from the previous month) to 2,325 million. With world supplies softened by larger carryover stocks, forecast carryover stocks (the aggregate of relevant local marketing years) are stable m/m at 581 million tonnes. Reflecting larger-than-expected shipments to key destinations in recent weeks, expectations for 2023/24 soybean trade are raised by 2 million tonnes to 175 million, up 1% y/y (year-on-year). The 2024/25 supply and demand outlook is slightly revised, with closing stocks unchanged at 82 million tonnes (+19% y/y). Partly driven by an upward ...

Source: Zol