South Africa: India's possible ban on rice exports presents a risk to global food prices

One important development this past week in global agriculture was the news that India is considering a temporary ban on rice exports. The rationale cited in various media articles in that India's government is worried about inflation ahead of the upcoming elections. However, the problem with this view is that India faces far less inflation pressure than other regions. For example, in June 2023, India's annual consumer inflation was at 4.8%, down significantly from the start of the year when inflation was at 6,5% in January 2023. Food inflation has moderated at roughly the same pace, measured at 4,5% in June 2023, down from 5,9% in January. Importantly, India is a significant producer of rice globally, accounting for a 26% share in the expected 2023/24 global rice production of 525 million tonnes, according to data from the International Grains Council (IGC). Of the 50 million tonnes of rice for global exports projected for the 2023/24 season, India is expected to account for ...