Indonesia forecasts palm oil production to grow to 47 mln tonnes in MY 2025/26

Published 2025년 5월 2일

Tridge summary

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a 3% rise in Indonesia's palm oil production to 47 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, attributed to favorable weather and lower fertilizer costs. Despite minimal effects from El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole, the harvested area remains at 14.4 million hectares. Domestic consumption is anticipated to increase to 22.6 million tonnes, driven by industrial and food sector demand, particularly due to the B40 biodiesel mandate, with considerations for a B50 mandate requiring more biodiesel production capacity. Export levies on palm oil products have increased by 10%, with exports expected to slightly grow to 24 million tonnes. Palm oil stocks are projected to rise by 8% to 5.3 million tonnes, with high prices and demand, especially for biodiesel, indicating positive market prospects despite potential export restrictions and competition from other vegetable oils.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report, Indonesia’s palm oil production is projected to increase by 3% to 47 mln tonnes in the 2025/26 season, driven by favorable weather and increased fertilizer use. The April 14 report notes that El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole weather patterns will have minimal impact, ensuring normal dry season conditions. Additionally, a 14–59% drop in fertilizer costs from 2022 to February 2025 is expected to boost their application. The harvested area for palm oil will remain at 14.4 mln ha, while the share of immature oil palms is set to rise from 15–16%, though still below the 2011–2014 peak. The USDA FAS anticipates significant expansion of palm plantations in coming years due to high palm oil prices. Domestic consumption is expected to grow to 22.6 mln tonnes in 2025/26, fueled by demand in industrial and food sectors, particularly with the B40 biodiesel mandate introduced in March 2025. Industrial palm oil consumption is ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult