Japan resists price increase for Alaskan pollock surimi, Asian market has generally accepted

Despite South Korea, India, and Thailand accepting a 10-15% price increase for Alaska pollock surimi B grade, Japan, the largest export market for the U.S., remains at odds with sellers. Sources revealed that some contracts were reached at the end of August, but most Japanese importers, especially processors linked to domestic companies, have yet to accept the quotes.

Initially, Alaska sellers demanded a uniform 30 yen/kg increase for all grades, but in July, they shifted to differentiating by grade: A grade maintained a 30 yen increase, while B grade was adjusted to increase by 10-20 yen. Currently, sellers insist that "A grade cannot accept an increase below 20 yen," and there remains a significant disparity in pricing between the two sides.

Asia accepts the increase, Japan faces supply risk

Compared to Japan's hesitation, other Asian market buyers acted decisively. South Korea, India, and Thailand have accepted a price increase of $0.30-0.35 per kg for A grade, mainly due to the reduced production of high-grade surimi and buyers' concerns about insufficient supply, actively securing sources.

However, the northern Bering Sea fishery progress is slow, and some processors may end up with unfilled quotas, with several manufacturers warning that "supply for the Japanese market is almost certainly insufficient."

Russian and Hokkaido production pressures

Behind Japan's resistance to price increases, there are multiple pressures:

· Increased imports of Russian surimi: From January to July, Japan imported 9,000 tons of Russian pollock surimi, a year-on-year increase of 61%, partially replacing Alaska supply. During the same period, Alaska exports to Japan fell 6% to 42,000 tons, with market share dropping from 83% to 74%.

· Hokkaido production rebound: From January to July, Hokkaido pollock surimi production reached 6,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Although not a direct substitute, it has created psychological pressure on the market.

Moreover, the landed price in Alaska increased by 27% to 412 yen/kg, while Russia's price only increased by 7% to 359 yen/kg, making it more price competitive.

Exchange rate and inventory further drag down negotiations

Since June, the yen has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar, leading Japanese buyers to believe that even if prices are reduced, sellers still benefit in dollar terms, further reducing the willingness to accept price increases. Meanwhile, inventory for 2024 remains high. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries shows that as of the end of June, Japan's pollock and other fish block inventory reached 53,000 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with pollock surimi inventory increasing for four consecutive months to 32,100 tons.

Japanese processing companies under pressure

In the end market, continuous price increases for fish surimi products in Japan have led to weak consumption. In the first half of 2025, Japan's fish surimi product production decreased by 3% year-on-year to 240,000 tons. Key information includes:

· CPI data shows that the overall price index for fish surimi products reached 127.8, a historic high.

· Prices for representative varieties such as chikuwa and kamaboko are at high levels, suppressing demand.

The industry association issued an emergency statement in early September, stating that three consecutive years of raw material price increases have made it "difficult for enterprises to cope through self-digestion."