The Australian live sheep export trade to the Middle East is in decline due to commercial factors rather than animal welfare concerns. The trade's fundamental drivers have changed as Arabian Gulf States shift towards Western food supply chains, with Sudan, Somalia, and Romania becoming the main suppliers. Advances in age and safety of the livestock ships currently available for Australian exports, coupled with a lack of new construction and increased regulatory costs, are expected to further reduce export capabilities. Industry leaders are urged to acknowledge the decline and seek transition support, rather than resisting the change.