World: Oilseed market analysis during 15 - 22 February 2024

Published 2024년 2월 22일

Tridge summary

The El Niño weather phenomenon in 2024 is predicted to impact agricultural production, albeit not as severely as initially feared. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of a La Niña event between June and August, which could affect grain production. Canola prices rose last week due to a weakening soybean market and slight support from crude oil. US soybean futures dropped 1.2% for the May contract to $432.15/t, influenced by positive South American crop forecasts, weaker demand, and expectations of increased US soybean acreage for 2024/25. The USDA has increased its global soybean production estimate for 2023/24 by 5.3% to 398.2 Mt, up from 378.1 Mt the previous year.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The weather The weather phenomenon El Niño is expected to limit agricultural production in 2024, similar to its impact the previous year, although not as severely as originally expected. Additionally, according to the US Weather Service, there is currently a 55% chance of a La Niña occurring between June and August, which could also potentially adversely affect grain production in certain parts of the world. According to their data, there is a 79% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will end in April-June, suggesting that the global economy has already weathered the worst of this weather phenomenon. MATIF prices Highlights of the week Canola prices posted gains last week amid a weakening soybean market and slight support from crude oil. Business association UCAB reports a potential drop of 15-20% in grain and oilseed production in Ukraine in 2024 due to less planted area, which will affect exports to the EU, as Ukraine is a key supplier. Rape ...

Source: Agroportal