Outlook for the world cattle and poultry meat market

China has increased its forecast for red meat imports for 2023, driven by a stronger economy and the recovery of the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) industry. Despite an increase in China's pork production, the domestic supply is not expected to meet demand, leading to higher beef imports. However, chicken imports are projected to be lower than pre-pandemic levels due to lower demand driven by lower pork prices.

Global beef production and exports in 2023 are expected to remain steady, with Australia and Brazil expected to increase their market share. Global pork production is projected to increase by 3%, led by China, and global pork exports are also expected to rise by 2%. Global chicken meat production is expected to remain steady, with Thailand and Mexico offsetting declines in Brazil. However, global chicken exports are projected to be 1% lower due to weaker demand from China, the EU, South Africa, and the UK.

Overall, global production is forecast to decline slightly, and global trade is also expected to decrease due to lower global consumption. The US is expected to maintain its production and exports at 14.6 and 12.0 million bales, respectively, with ending stocks forecast to be slightly higher than January 2023.