Pakistan: Wheat production decline of 2025 – is it an opportunity or a crisis?

Pakistan is estimated at 28.98 million tonnes (MT), 8.9 percent lower than the record-high harvest of 31.81MT during FY2024. About three-fourth of the decline was contributed by 6.8 percent loss in cultivated area, while per ha yield was 2.2 percent lower than the previous year’s peak. The production and yield during FY2025, although lower than previous year’s peak, were still higher respectively by 4.1 percent and 5.0 percent than the last five-years’ average—indeed a respectable growth. It is worth noting that such so-called ‘crisis’ in wheat production is not new in the country. Over the FY2017 and FY2018, it declined by 6 percent; 7 percent between FY2011 and FY2012; and 9.8 percent during FY2000 and FY2001. Over these periods, wheat yield lowered by 4.1 percent, 4.2 percent, and 6.6 percent, respectively. Thus decline in wheat production is part of a cyclical phenomenon that happens after every 7-10 years’ interval. The decline in area under wheat cultivation during FY2025 ...