Projections 2026: China cuts consumption, but increases its purchases; India maintains its growth

In recent days, the USDA released updated information on the livestock situation in China and India, the two Asian powerhouses, and their forecasts for 2026. In the case of China, it anticipates a drop in beef production, from 7.8 million tons in 2025 to 7.56 million in 2026, derived from slaughters that will go from 51 million to 49.5 million heads, in that order. With weaker consumption, due to lower-than-expected economic growth, and a shift towards cheaper meats (pork, poultry), the Chinese domestic market will decrease from 11.5 million tons to just under 11 million (almost a 5% reduction). This is also aided by the increase in domestic prices. Its curve shows that from a value of 65 renminbi (RMB) in 2018, it had a bullish run that took it to between 85 and 90, from the beginning of 2021 to the first part of 2023. Then it fell back to 65 and, in recent months, it has climbed back up to 70 today. Translated to dollars, at the exchange rates of each moment, they represent ...