Australia: Rabobank’s Winter Crop Outlook forecasts big lift in wheat area

Published 2024년 6월 4일

Tridge summary

Australia's 2024-25 winter crop is projected to expand by 3.6% to 23.55 million hectares, driven by positive conditions in New South Wales and Queensland, with wheat planting increasing significantly. However, canola planting will decrease due to dry conditions and lower margins. Total production is estimated at 46.3 million tonnes, with La Niña potentially bringing above-average rainfall to the eastern regions, while Western and South Australia face challenges from the Indian Ocean Dipole's positive phase. Rabobank reports significant grain carryover affecting wheat basis, slower input procurement due to weather uncertainties, and varying fertiliser application rates. South Australia and Western Australia will see shifts in cropping areas, with reductions in canola and increases in pulses and wheat, impacting regional export profiles.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Australia’s 2024-25 winter crop now being planted is forecast to cover 23.55 million hectares (Mha), up 3.6 percent from last season, according to Rabobank’s Winter Crop Outlook released June 3. The increase comes largely on the back of a positive outlook for New South Wales and Queensland and better margins year on year, and will favour wheat, while canola will drop around 450,000ha from 2023-24. Total planted area for the winter wheat crop will surge 961,000ha, or 7.7pc year on year, to 13.48Mha. Barley will likely take second place in the expansion, with an estimated 5.1pc, or 210,000ha, rise to 4.33Mha. “It’s currently a ‘tale of two coasts’, at least for the season’s start, with strong early sowing in the east, but a dry start in the west,” RaboResearch analyst and report author Vitor Pistoia said. “Canola seems prone to giving hectares away, shrinking 12.7pc year on year to 3.11Mha due to dry conditions in Western Australia and South Australia, and lower potential gross ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult