Global: Rapeseed futures in Paris immediately collapsed by 5% after a speculative rise

Published 2024년 12월 19일

Tridge summary

February rapeseed futures in Paris have experienced a 5% drop since Monday due to speculative growth that was not supported by fundamental factors. This decline is part of a larger trend affecting soybeans, soybean oil in Chicago, palm oil in Malaysia, and rapeseed and rapeseed oil in Paris. For the 2024/25 marketing year, EU countries have increased their rapeseed imports by 3% to 2.7 million tons, with the majority coming from Ukraine. However, Canada's canola futures experienced a 4.3% decrease on Monday due to provocative statements from Trump about imposing high tariffs, alongside a 3% drop in the Canadian dollar, leading to a larger dollar price difference between Canadian canola and European rapeseed. In Ukraine, rapeseed purchase prices have decreased, but the number of traders making purchases has significantly reduced.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

As we predicted, the speculative growth in rapeseed quotes in Paris was very rapid and not based on fundamental factors, which is why February futures have already collapsed by 5% since Monday. The fall in quotes for soybeans and soybean oil in Chicago and palm oil in Malaysia by 8% since the beginning of the week is also putting pressure on the rapeseed and rapeseed oil market. On the Paris exchange, February rapeseed futures fell by 3.2% yesterday to €520.75/t or $540.5/t (-5% since the beginning of the week, -4.3% for the month), and May futures fell by 4.7% since Monday to €506.75/t (-5.7% for the month). According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 MY (as of December 16), EU countries increased their rapeseed imports by 3% compared to the corresponding period of the previous season to 2.7 million tons, of which 1.9 million tons were supplied from Ukraine, 500 thousand tons from Australia and 100 thousand tons from Canada. The main importers were Belgium (918 thousand ...

Source: Graintrade