Record harvests and trade wars shaped agricultural markets in 2025

uncertainty, pressured by intensifying trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China. The global grain market experienced a genuine boom. In the 2025/26 season, most leading wheat exporters harvested crops at least 10% larger than a year earlier. This drove world wheat stocks outside China up by 13.5% — the largest annual increase in 16 years — pushing Chicago wheat prices below $5 per bushel for the first time in more than five years. High production levels and weakening profitability could ultimately lead to reduced wheat acreage in the United States and Russia in the 2026/27 season. The corn market presented a more nuanced picture. While total global corn stocks fell to a 12-year low, according to USDA estimates, they rose to a six-year high when China is excluded. At the same time, record production and the risk of softer demand from the livestock sector could limit further market growth in the 2026/27 season. The U.S. share of global soybean exports ...