Record levels of global grain production and trade, but declines in stocks to be expected

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its forecast for the global grain supply and demand for the 2021-2022 crop year. Although global cereal production is expected to reach a record high in 2021, global stocks are projected to decline due to stronger trade in wheat and rice. The FAO has reduced its global wheat production forecast by 6.2 million tons to 771 million tons, primarily due to decreased production estimates in Iran, Turkey, and the United States. However, world corn production is expected to rise, largely due to higher yields in Brazil and India. Global rice production is also expected to increase, albeit by a smaller margin, with planting for the 2022 harvest already underway in the northern hemisphere and in countries south of the equator. Despite high wheat prices, input costs could limit expansion in some countries. Overall, global cereal consumption is projected to increase by 1.7 percent from the previous year, with total wheat consumption expected to rise by 2.2 percent.