Return from China to the US market affects Brazilian soybeans

Soybean contracts for shipment in 2026 have returned to registering negative premiums in Brazil, a movement that had not occurred since July, according to a survey by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea). The decline is attributed to the indication that China is resuming, albeit partially, purchases of the U.S. grain. Despite the pressure on premiums, physical soybean prices remained sustained. According to Cepea researchers, Brazilian producers prioritized spot market deals, with deferred payment, as a way to ensure current remuneration levels. This market behavior occurs amid optimistic projections for the next crop. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 177.6 million tons, the highest volume ever recorded. However, the scenario still depends on climatic conditions. Conab warns of the possibility of lower productivity in the Midwest, the main producing region, due to the effects of the La ...