Short rapeseed crop may put China in a bind

lower than Beijing’s official number based on their estimates of the operational pace and capacity of crushing plants in their respective regions,” the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated in its recent China Oilseeds and Products Update. “One leading industry source estimates that China’s rapeseed production is 12.4 million tonnes, with planted area of (13.59 million acres).” Western Producer Markets Desk analyst Bruce Burnett is not at all surprised that the government number is much bigger than what the industry is forecasting. “They’re probably wildly optimistic on their domestic production,” he said. China has a vested interest in inflating its production estimate because it is waging an oilseed trade war with Canada and the United States and does not want other exporters thinking it is short supplies. FAS is going with something between the two extremes, estimating the crop at 15.9 million tonnes, based on 18.53 million acres. It is forecasting 3.1 million tonnes ...