Shrimp stats and stories: The impact of climate variability on Ecuador's shrimp farms

Ecuador's aquaculture industry, renowned as the global leader in shrimp exports with 987,900 tonnes LSE from January to September in 2024, faces significant challenges and opportunities due to the natural climate cycles influenced by the Pacific Ocean, especially the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These climatic events, known for their impact on shrimp farming productivity, growth rates, disease prevalence, and export volumes, have led to fluctuations in the industry's performance in recent years.

The article discusses the historical impacts of ENSO on Ecuador's shrimp industry, highlighting how both El Niño and La Niña phases have influenced export volumes from 2019 to 2024. It also explores the benefits and risks of El Niño and the challenges posed by La Niña, detailing the industry's resilience and adaptations to climate variability through infrastructure improvements and strategic practices.

Furthermore, the article provides an outlook for the 2024 ENSO forecast, predicting a return to La Niña conditions from late 2024 to early 2025, with a 60% chance of developing by November 2024 and expected to last until early 2025. Despite the potential challenges, the industry remains hopeful, with a possibility of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by spring 2025, which could provide relief and allow for stabilization and recovery. The article emphasizes the importance of investing in resilient farming practices and diversifying markets to ensure the industry's continued growth and success in a changing climatic landscape.