South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports will remain substantial

million tonnes, down marginally from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024-25 marketing year because of an expected slight recovery in the domestic harvest. For anyone wondering why South Africa imports wheat, I must highlight some brief historical perspective I have shared here before. South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year. In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tonnes, for example, between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings. From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and in non-conducive climatic conditions. The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various ...