Soybean concerns in the global market: Record US yields and high stocks prolong downward pressure

Published 2024년 9월 19일

Tridge summary

The USDA predicts a record soybean yield in the US, leading to high ending stocks and bearing on global market prices. The global ending stocks-to-consumption ratio is at its highest in over 30 years, with Brazil's projected harvest of 169 million tons potentially influencing China's purchase decisions of US soybeans. Despite these challenges, US soybean and corn yields are favorable, and there is optimism for US exports due to lower prices in Brazil. China's demand behavior is pivotal, as its soybean and soybean meal stocks are declining, and its sales have increased, indicating a potential confirmation of the USDA projection. The US soybean meal market is experiencing record highs, with exports projected to reach a record 16 million tonnes.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting a record soybean yield in the United States, which has raised concerns in the global market due to the potential impact on ending stocks and prices. The global ending stocks-to-consumption ratio has risen to levels not seen in more than 30 years, posing a bearish factor similar to that seen in the 2018/19 cycle. To improve this relationship, greater use of soybean oil in renewable diesel production was expected, but the preference for used cooking oil has slowed this growth. In addition, global supply continues to increase, with Brazil projecting a harvest of 169 million tons, a figure that could influence China's purchasing decisions and delay its demand for US soybeans. The USDA report makes clear that while yields for soybeans and corn in the US are favorable, high ending stocks create uncertainty in the market. Attention now turns to demand behavior and particularly how China will respond to abundant global ...

Source: Defrentealcampo