World: Stable forecast for total grain production in the 2024/2025 season

Published 2024년 10월 18일

Tridge summary

Global grain production remains stable despite droughts in Australia and Argentina, with gains in Kazakhstan and Turkey. Consumption forecasts have increased by 3 million tonnes due to higher feed use, and carryover stocks have risen by the same amount. However, the trade outlook is reduced by 2 million tonnes due to lower imports of wheat, corn, and barley. Year-on-year, production is expected to rise by 9 million tonnes in 2024/25, but total supplies are slightly lower due to reduced initial stocks. Consumption is projected to reach a new peak, while end-of-season stocks are forecast to fall by 12 million tonnes, the lowest in a decade. Global trade is anticipated to decrease by 36 million tonnes from last year's peak, mainly due to declines in wheat and corn.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Global Grain Production Estimates Stable Month-on-Month Local drought has slightly limited wheat prospects in Australia and Argentina ahead of the main winter cropping period. Estimates for the EU and Russia have also been lowered, but with offsetting gains elsewhere, including Kazakhstan (wheat) and Turkey (barley), global crop estimates are unchanged month-on-month. The total consumption forecast, almost entirely driven by higher feed use, is up 3 million tonnes from the previous period to 2.328 billion tonnes. Taking into account larger-than-previously estimated initial stocks, the value of global carryover stocks (the sum of the corresponding local marketing years) is up 3 million tonnes month-on-month to 584 million tonnes. The trade outlook is lowered by 2 million tonnes to 419 million, with lower imports of wheat (including Turkey), corn (for China) and barley (for China and Iran). Grain production forecast increased year-on-year Despite the expected modest withdrawal of ...

Source: Farmer.pl