Strategie Grains cuts EU wheat crop forecast after harvest begins

Published 2024년 6월 17일

Tridge summary

Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for the European Union's soft wheat harvest for 2024/25, predicting a four-year low production of 121.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from May's forecast. This represents a 3.6% drop from the previous year and the lowest yield since 2020/21 due to heavy rainfall in France and other countries. The consultancy also expects a decrease in the EU's barley crop to 52.2 million tons from 53.0 million tons last month. The harvest results have been mixed, with varying yield figures in different countries. The reduced expected EU crop, along with anticipated supply cuts in the Black Sea, is set to significantly decrease bloc's stocks. Global soft wheat production forecast for 2024/25 has been revised downwards by nearly 10 million tons to 713.3 million tons due to adverse weather conditions in Russia and Ukraine.

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Original content

Strategie Grains has lowered its monthly forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the European Union, reiterating its expectation of a four-year low in production as harvest begins. The consultancy now forecasts soft wheat production in 2024/25 in the 27-nation bloc at 121.8 million tons, 1.7 million tons less than forecast in May. The consultancy’s latest forecast is 3.6% below last year’s volume and would be the lowest since 2020/21, when the crop was also affected by heavy rains during the growing season. In a summary of its monthly cereals report, Strategie Grains did not explain the reasons for the downward revision to its forecast, but said it expected France to see the biggest year-on-year drop in production, followed to a lesser extent by Germany, Poland and Hungary. France, the EU’s biggest grain producer, saw soft wheat sowing fall by more than 7% due to heavy rains. The consultancy also lowered its forecast for this year’s EU barley crop to 52.2 million tons from ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult