World: Structural deficit projects a historic high in cocoa prices and challenges the chocolate industry

The global cocoa market is facing an alarming multi-year deficit scenario that promises to push prices to historic inflation-adjusted levels. After a blistering start to 2024, with prices reaching $12,000 per tonne in April—well above the historical average of $3,400—there was a brief dip to $7,000 in May. However, experts warn that this relief will be temporary, and further significant increases are on the horizon. The main cause of this scenario is a structural deficit in the supply and demand balance, exacerbated by climate and structural challenges in producing regions. The 2023-24 season recorded a record deficit of 500,000 tonnes, the largest in history, marking the third consecutive year of global deficit. Global production fell by 13%, driven by significant declines in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than 50% of the world’s cocoa. The shortage was exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which has compromised crop yields in 2023. Despite hopes of a recovery ...