World: Structural deficit projects a historic high in cocoa prices and challenges the chocolate industry

Published 2024년 12월 6일

Tridge summary

The global cocoa market is experiencing a multi-year deficit, with prices reaching record highs due to a supply-demand imbalance and climate challenges in production regions. The 2023-24 season saw a record deficit of 500,000 tonnes, the third consecutive year of global deficit, and a 13% decrease in global production. Factors such as deforestation laws, fertilizer shortages, and the spread of the cocoa swollen bud virus are further reducing productivity. Despite the high prices, demand for cocoa remains strong, indicating potential for further price increases. The current situation is expected to continue, with prices possibly reaching levels not seen since 1977. This poses a challenge for chocolate manufacturers and calls for investment in technological solutions, sustainable agricultural practices, and preparation for high costs throughout the chocolate value chain.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The global cocoa market is facing an alarming multi-year deficit scenario that promises to push prices to historic inflation-adjusted levels. After a blistering start to 2024, with prices reaching $12,000 per tonne in April—well above the historical average of $3,400—there was a brief dip to $7,000 in May. However, experts warn that this relief will be temporary, and further significant increases are on the horizon. The main cause of this scenario is a structural deficit in the supply and demand balance, exacerbated by climate and structural challenges in producing regions. The 2023-24 season recorded a record deficit of 500,000 tonnes, the largest in history, marking the third consecutive year of global deficit. Global production fell by 13%, driven by significant declines in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than 50% of the world’s cocoa. The shortage was exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which has compromised crop yields in 2023. Despite hopes of a recovery ...

Source: Mercado Do Cacau