Sugar: La Niña in Brazil, monsoons in Asia and exports from India will determine the direction of business

Published 2024년 7월 26일

Tridge summary

The global sugar market is experiencing pressure due to favorable harvests in Brazil and monsoon rains in India, with future prices likely influenced by Asian weather patterns, India's export decisions, and the La Niña phenomenon. Despite a global surplus, recent data shows lower estimates than expected. Brazil's production has dropped due to rainfall, while Asia anticipates a 1.4% production increase, particularly in Pakistan and Thailand. India's monsoon rains are slightly below average, and its sugar production is estimated to drop by 9.4% in 2024/25, with significant regional declines. India is expected to prioritize domestic demand and its ethanol program over exports. China's sugar harvest is projected to increase by 10.45%, potentially reducing its import needs, while its imports of liquid sugars and pre-mixed powders have reached record levels. Thailand's satisfactory rainfall is beneficial for its agricultural output.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

With the Brazilian harvest going well and the monsoon rains in India, the sugar market has been operating under pressure on prices in recent weeks. According to Filipe Cardoso, from StoneX Brasil, the rains in Asia - as well as the definition of India's exports and the possible impacts of the La Niña phenomenon will dictate prices from now on in the market. The global sugar supply balance continues to be in surplus, but according to the most recent data from StoneX, the revision brought lower numbers than the previous estimate. In addition to Asia and Brazil, the analysis highlights that rainfall from now on will be decisive for the global balance, considering Mexico, the European Union and Central American countries. "However, the dynamics in recent months may highlight the uncertainties among agents regarding the availability of sugar, especially from October onwards, when the Center-South (CS) heads towards the off-season. If in May the surplus estimates in 2024/ 25 (Oct-Sep) ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas