Global: Sugar market faces challenges with climate in Brazil and reduced exports from India

Published 2024년 12월 2일

Tridge summary

The global sugar market is currently facing uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors such as a strong dollar, weakening emerging currencies, and a weakened Chinese economy, which have negatively impacted demand and put pressure on trade flows. Despite these challenges, market fundamentals remain stable with a potential supply shortage in the last quarter of 2024. Factors such as favorable weather conditions in Brazil and adverse weather conditions in India, which have delayed sugar production and restricted exports, are impacting trade flows and adding volatility to prices. The balance in trade flows of white sugar and the shortage of supply of the raw product are putting pressure on refinery margins, and a global supply deficit expected for the first quarter of 2025 could exceed 2 million tons if Indian exports are not resumed.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The global sugar market is going through a period of uncertainty. The current macroeconomic situation, characterized by the strengthening of the dollar, the depreciation of emerging currencies and a weakened Chinese economy, has negatively impacted the demand for commodities, including sugar. These factors have reduced FOB premiums and put pressure on trade flows for the commodity. According to an analysis by Lívea Coda, Sugar and Ethanol specialist at Hedgepoint Global Markets, market fundamentals remain stable, but the expected supply shortage in the last quarter of 2024 may be smaller than initially projected. “Mexico started the season positively, while Brazil continues to have a strong share of the global market,” explains the analyst. The March contract appears to be the most promising, with a spread of 140 points H/K25. “The recent rains in the Center-South of Brazil are favorable for the development of the 2025/26 harvest, which may strengthen this upward trend,” says ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio