Ukraine and Russia collectively control over 70% of the global sunflower oil market, with Ukraine currently facing challenges in its sunflower oil industry due to a nearly depleted 2023/24 harvest and a difficult start to the 2024/25 season, caused by a long drought and high temperatures impacting summer crops like sunflower and corn. As a result, crude sunflower oil prices at Ukrainian ports have risen since September 2024, driven by strong demand and limited supply, leading to a significant decrease in sunflower oil exports. Oleomannan, an oilseed consultancy, has lowered its production estimates for Russia and Ukraine, anticipating demand rationing and a potential global sunflower seed export drop to a nine-year low. Additionally, tensions between China and Canada could further impact the market, with China threatening retaliatory restrictions on Canadian canola in response to potential tariffs on Chinese products by Canada.