Surge in India corn consumption shifts regional market dynamics

India is expected to reach record corn consumption of 37.4 million tons for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (Nov-Oct). This increase is driven by the government’s ethanol policy and the growth of the poultry sector, which have significantly reduced corn exports and led to higher imports. To support domestic food consumption amid declining sugar production, the Indian government has limited the conversion of sugar into ethanol, which is its main feedstock. In January 2024, to compensate for this loss, the government raised the procurement price of corn-based ethanol by 29%, bringing it to INR 71.86 (about $0.86) per liter. As a result of rising demand, corn prices have surged above those of its competitors, affecting export levels. India, traditionally a major supplier to South and Southeast Asia, is expected to export 84% less corn this year. For the first time since the 1999/00 marketing year, India’s corn imports are set to match its exports. Countries like Bangladesh and Nepal, ...