The 2025/26 cotton crop is expected to see a decrease of 7%.

Brazilian cotton production is expected to total 3.72 million tons in the 2025/26 crop, a 7% drop from the previous cycle that recorded 4 million tons, according to projections by StoneX. According to the report by the global financial services firm, the reduction mainly reflects the retreat of about 75 thousand hectares, reaching 1.44 million hectares of planted area. Mato Grosso remains the largest producer in the country, with an expected production of 2.6 million tons of lint, despite the decrease in area. In Bahia, the second main producing region, the estimated production is 777 thousand tons. Together, the two states will account for more than 90% of the national supply. According to the survey, the outlook for planting is favored by the advance of rains in Mato Grosso, which should guarantee an adequate window for soybeans and, consequently, for second-crop cotton. For Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX, the scenario reinforces the weight of the ...